Prediction markets with visible odds and invisible bettors

What this enables

• →Informationally efficient markets without identity leakage. Polymarket's accuracy comes from visible bet flow driving accurate odds. The same visibility creates whale tracking, herding, and bettor pressure. Academic research shows anonymous betting produces more accurate forecasts - bandwagoning is replaced with independent information aggregation.
• →Institutional prediction markets. Corporations want internal forecasting markets (project completion, strategic decisions, sales targets) but can't because positions become political. An executive betting against their own division's timeline is a career risk. Anonymous betting unlocks the use case entirely.
• →Political and sensitive markets, less regulatory exposure. France blocked Polymarket. The CFTC has taken enforcement actions. Visible large positions on political outcomes create narratives that influence the outcomes themselves. Anonymous betting separates information aggregation from attribution.
• →Cross-market privacy for professional bettors. Polymarket lets sophisticated observers build wallet-level profiles: hit rate, sector specialization, holding patterns. Professional edge gets copied. STRK20 prevents the profiling.

What you build

A PredictionMarket helper with per-question state (outcomes, resolution source, deadline, per-outcome volume) and privacy_invoke for bet / claim. Bets are open notes to the market contract (amounts public, identity hidden via paymaster). Resolution writes the winning outcome; winners claim payouts as private transfers. Per-market oracle binding (Pragma for prices, designated resolver or DAO vote for non-price outcomes).

Why this works on Starknet specifically

Compliance-first privacy (viewing keys make it auditable), DeFi composability in the pool (open notes + InvokeExternal), production paymaster + session keys. Other privacy chains lack at least one of these - and the lack of any one breaks the institutional use case.

Hidden vs visible

| Element | Hidden | Visible | | --- | --- | --- | | Bettor identity | Yes - paymaster submits all tx | | | Bet amounts | | Yes - open notes, drives accurate odds | | Current odds, per-outcome volume | | Yes - public market state | | Resolution | | Yes - verifiable from oracle / resolver | | Bettor's cross-market profile | Yes - no wallet-level history accumulates | |